The University of Washington has been at the forefront of pandemic data since the virus arrived in the U.S., with the first cases being found in Washington State. The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) dedicated a portion of its website to COVID-19 metrics, which is constantly being updated.
Yesterday, the IHME released a new map showing when, based on the current data, each state might safely be able to start lifting containment measures.
The earliest date range, which applies to just five states—Montana, West Virginia, Vermont, Alaska, and Hawaii—is May 4 to May 10. The state of Georgia, which is already lifting lockdown measures, falls well into the latest date range, with a specific date of June 22—a full two months from now.
All of the models that are showing the steep drop in cases and deaths down to near zero are predicated on people maintaining the mitigation measures that have been put in place. Lifting them too soon is one of the variables that can throw the entire thing off.